Thursday, November 12, 2009

the 5:1 ratio




Thrilled as can be! For those who are wondering, Jackson is a tiny-bit disappointed, but knows he plays an important role in family now as the only son. We are excited to be receiving one of Heavenly Father's choice daughters to come to our house to live.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

brown

Maegann: "Mom, why are you painting the whole house brown?"

Mom: "Because brown is a very nice neutral color.

Maegann: "But brown is not a color with any fun in it!"

Mom: "Exactly!"

Thursday, September 24, 2009

the economics of free healthcare or why the president is wrong

economic transactions can be broken down into four different categories (i saw this first described in milton and rose friedman's seminal work "free to choose"). i call them Laissez-faire, Gift, Insurance and Government.

Laissez-faire is a system where you spend your money on goods and services for yourself.

Gift is a system where you spend your money on goods and services for someone else.

Insurance is a system where you spend someone else's money on goods and services for yourself.

Government is where a someone spends someone else's money on goods and services for a third party.

these systems are listed in order of most efficient to least efficient.

Laissez-faire tops the efficiency chart because noone else better understands the cost of a dollar to you (i.e. what you had to do to earn it) and noone else truly understands the value of of the good or service to you (i.e. what benefit you receive from it).

Gift is second in efficiency because it maintains the cost understanding of a dollar to you, but loses efficiency when the value of the good or service provided to the second party is misunderstood.

Insurance introduces mass inefficiency because the cost of other people's money to you is ignored in the face of getting a good or service virtually free. if the good or service has any perceived value at all, you will take it no matter the cost. so both the cost and value are somewhat skewed.

Government is the least efficient of all because not only is cost ignored(or misunderstood), but the value of the good or service can also be completely ignored(or misunderstood). this is why the effectiveness of government programs are often measured by how much money was spent on a problem instead of how much of the said problem was resolved.

today, our healthcare system is run off the Insurance (in)efficiency model. the receiver of the service (healthcare) doesn't really care how much the service being offered costs because "insurance has it covered". as an example, for those of you who have (or have had in the past) a full coverage insurance plan, think about what your answer is in the pharmacy when asked if you want to try the less expensive generic drug. the name-brand drugs can cost up to 5 times the price of generics, but when you have full coverage you don't care.

another example, i remember a time when i looked at a hospital bill for one of our baby deliveries and noticed a $10 charge for two over-the-counter ibuprofen. at first i was incensed until my wife pointed out that the insurance had it covered so why should i make a fuss? i didn't want to sully a good day, so i just let it slide.

the current healthcare proposal being offered in congress and pushed by president obama is one that will move us from the second least efficient economic model to the least efficient economic model. the predictions of us being able to save money by moving toward a government system are simply wishful thinking. you can safely ignore the projected costs of government programs (except, perhaps, to establish a floor to the cost), because they rarely only costs what was projected.

some will likely point out that other countries, with their socialized medicine (or socialized insurance), don't cost as much as our healthcare here in America, but they are comparing apples and crabapples and ignoring a serious economic problem.

first, the serious economic problem. we've all heard of how you can get prescription drugs cheaper in canada than you can in the US. this is true and it indeed means that overall prescription drug cost in canada is cheaper than in the US. this is a direct apples-to-apples comparison because they are the same drugs but simply cost less in canada.

the obvious (and simplistic) solution is to nationalize our own drug industry and force the "big pharma" companies to sell their goods at a lower cost. this would, however, destroy the innovation we see in the pharma industry for both the US and canada because canada is a beneficiary of what is known in economic circles as the "free rider problem".

basically, since canada gets most of it's medicines from the united states, the high cost of drugs in the US is subsidizing the lower price the canadian government is willing to pay. without the US paying for the research costs of "Big Pharma", the medicines would not be developed and would be unavailable everywhere. but since the US pays more than it's share of the development of these drugs, canada can slip in with offering a lower price and receive maximum benefit.

second, the apples to crabapples comparison. if we moved to a socialized healthcare (or health insurance) system and it actually did cost less than what we currently have today, then basic economics tells us that we would not be getting the same level of service than what we were getting. you can't move from an inefficient system to a less efficient system and get the same goods for a cheaper price.

one comparison statistic we can look at is cancer survival rates by country. "Most Cancer Survival Rates in USA Better Than Europe and Canada" blares the headline, even with our less healthy lifestyles.

so what's the proper solution to our inefficient healthcare system if not government? clearly, based on the economic (in)efficiency models i described, we need to get back to a more laissez-faire system. we need people to have a more vested interest in picking both the healthcare they need and the cost they are willing to pay for said healthcare.

one way to do this is to advocate a high deductible healthcare plan. people will be protected from catastrophic and unexpected medical costs while paying for a good portion of their healthcare themselves.

the government has started to promote this kind of system by creating the tax-advantaged Health Savings Account that is attached to a high deductible health insurance policy.

i believe enough in this solution that i participate myself and we have started to see some of the inefficiencies in the current system ironed out in our own transactions.

example: my wife is currently in her first trimester of pregnancy. this is the time when morning sickness reigns supreme and, at least in my wife's case, reigns all day (not just in the morning). she has taken a brand name anti-nausea medication in the past to help through this period and inquired of her doctor about the cost.

the cost for one round of prescription for the medicine is $300 which we would have to pay fully out of our Health Savings Account. under the insurance model, my wife never would have asked about a generic because she didn't have to incur the $300 cost. under the new model, she asked and found a generic that was $220.

now she had a choice to make. was spending $220 (knowing full well the cost, in labor and opportunity, of $220 to our family) worth the benefit of the good (the value of not feeling as sick during this period).

she decided it wasn't worth the benefit... yet, but did as good consumers are supposed to do and kept looking around. after a few more phone calls and questions to the right people, she found a local pharmacy that would mix their own version of the medicine (instead of getting it from a "Big Pharma" company) and it only cost $90.

she found the right cost for the proper value, made the economic transaction and maximum efficiency was achieved.

maybe someday i'll expand on the importance of efficiency to economic history and prosperity.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

couch to 5k programs...

i've had several people that follow this blog ask about couch to 5k programs.

i used the "aggressive" couch to 5k program at beginnertriathlete.com that gets you there in 4 months. they also have a "conservative" program that takes 7 months.

my wife is using a program at coolrunning.com that she likes because there is a podcast associated with it that tells you when to start running and when to stop.

there are also plenty of other couch to 5k programs out there. if the ones my wife and i used don't work for you for whatever reason, just find one that will :)

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

YUM!




via the volokh conspiracy, i saw this and thought wowyum. or yumwow. or something.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

tri libre!



so a week from saturday i'm going to "compete" in my first ever sprint triathlon. around sept. of last year my brother challenged me to do a sprint triathlon and i accepted the challenge. today i've decided to record a few things i've learned along the way:

1. the trip of 1000 miles (or, more specifically, 16 miles) begins with one step.

2. when talking about triathlons, the term "sprint" sounds more impressive than it is. all it really means is you are doing half an olympic length triathlon. (0.5 mile swim, 12.4 mile bike and 3.1 mile run).

3. when learning to swim, make sure to kick your legs hard.

4. when starting from ground 0, triathlons aren't cheap even when you try to go cheap:
- $40 for running shoes (you NEED good running shoes)
- $170 for a new bike
- $10 for bike helmet
- $10 for bike gloves (may not be needed. my hands kept going numb so i thought i'd try some.)
- $24/month for a gym membership (only needed for access to a pool with swim lanes)
- $75 registration fee for the actual triathlon (but hey, you get a t-shirt!)
- $100 for a trisuit
- ~$25 for sports nutrition
- $40 doctor fee to be told your foot pain is plantar fasciitis (but hey, the dr. DID print out the wikipedia article for me!)
Total: ~$700

5. if you decide to not use a trisuit, consider what you are going to do between the swim and bike portion of the race. you are standing there in your swimsuit ready to get on your bike. there are no changing rooms. your choices are to a) get naked in public and put on your shorts or b) buy an expensive trisuit that will dry quickly and can be used for both swimming and biking.

i decided not to get naked and to buy the trisuit. it looks great if i'm going for a mexican wrestler motif.

6. triathlons have old, fat guy divisions (more p.c. termed "senior clydesdale" division). anyone over 39 is "senior" and any man over 200 lbs is "clydesdale".

7. the big women division is called "athena" since describing a woman in terms of large farm animals is apparently pejorative.

8. women are more supportive than men. most common response i hear from women when they hear about my triathlon training are a variation of "you are an inspiration". most common response i hear from men: "can i watch? i've never seen a heart attack before".

i'm sure there are more things i've learned but that's all i can think of for now. wish me luck!

Thursday, April 2, 2009

April Fools!

After getting fooled twice yesterday before noon even hit, I decided it was time for me to play my own April Fool's joke on my friends. It wasn't an original prank, in fact I'm pretty sure I've played this joke multiple times in years past. But this was the first time I've done it on facebook - and let me tell you, the response was hilarious.

I put my FB status as: "Liz Kenney Kirkby w00ty! baby #6 on the way! coming in November :) wish us luck!!!" Of course I got several "grats" and other well wishes. But there were a few doubters as well, citing April 1 as a day to be skeptical. I let it play out all day to see how far it would go.

The best reaction was definitely from our oldest daughter Brianne. In the end she was rather embarrassed for falling so hard for a joke, so I hope I dont make it worse by posting here. But I thought it was so sweet for her to be so excited for another baby in our family - it really touched me. She truly is a wonderful daughter - we couldnt have asked for a better firstborn.

After seeing my FB status she made the "announcement" on her own page: "Brianne Kirkby is getting a new baby brother/sister! YAY!!!" Several friends gave her grats too and she commented on how excited she was.

Finally Brian intervened:
Brian Kirkby at 4:07pm April 1
brianne, what day is today?

Brianne Kirkby at 4:10pm April 1
April Fools day, but i really think mom wouldnt lie about that. If she did then i am going to be mad at her.

So of course I had to make my own comment:
Liz Kenney Kirkby at 4:12pm April 1
yes, and by the way...i'll be moving the baby's nursery in to your room down stairs to make room for my office upstairs. i hope you don't mind taking care of the baby in the night. You're such a good big sister!

to which her only reply was:
Brianne Kirkby at 4:14pm April 1
wait. grrrrrrrrr! Where will maegann sleep?

the conversation continues:
Liz Kenney Kirkby at 4:25pm April 1
with you still. and since hannah has been wanting to go back to the downstairs room again we'll do that too. but then jackson will be by himself, so we'll just have to move the bunkbeds down and they can both be down there. so ya....party time! now, where should i put savannah? oh i know...IN YOUR ROOM!!!1!!

Brianne Kirkby at 4:27pm April 1
WAIT! SO I HAVE TO SHARE MY ROOM WITH ALL 3 OF MY SISTERS!?!?!?! that is the OPISITE of what i wanted!!!!!

Liz Kenney Kirkby at 4:29pm April 1
no no no.... jackson too. and dont forget the new baby as well :)

Brianne Kirkby at 4:30pm April 1
ugh whatever

she then changes her own FB status to "Brianne Kirkby ugh. JUST KIDDING! I DONT KNOW IF I AM GETTING A NEW SIBLING! MY MOM IS A LIAR! i am mad now."

She was actually very good natured about it. I am proud of her for not loosing it and being truly mad at me.

About an hour later I got a call from my father-in-law. "So, is it a prank or not?" I told him the truth and he was very disappointed. He said he had sent out emails to all his friends proclaiming the news of a new grandchild on the way. I told him he had better send out a retraction.

Thanks everyone for being so supportive of the possibility of us being new parents again. Hopefully someday soon we will have a REAL announcement. But don't hold your breath :)